While voters across the country were keeping an eye on their televisions and received fresh and up-to-date news and political sites on Tuesday night, some of them were focusing on something else. There is a possibility of betting.
You cannot legally place bets in a political race in the United States, but there is a thriving market in the UK and elsewhere as speculators make money thinking that Candidate A or Candidate B wins a big race.
Many, many sons Donald Trump and Joseph R. Biden is following the race for the presidency among juniors. They are consuming a wide variety of data, and can quickly move bet lines into their collective knowledge of where they put their money. . As a result, the betting barrage may be a canary in a coal mine, with some candidates holding onto the hoop before some candidates give notice.
On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, political speculators, at least in the courts where they could legally place bets, went on a wild ride.
Going into election night, bookies in places like Britain considered Biden a big favorite – to win $ 1, you needed $ 2. Essentially this meant that Biden was considered to have about a 66 percent chance of winning.
The bookies and bookies who set up these lines were more sharp on Trump’s chances than many statistical sites: Fivethirtyeight.com Gave Biden an 89 percent chance of winning, and The economist Went up to 97 percent before Election Day.
“Trump was seen as an underdog since May,” said Pete Watt, public relations manager Oddschecker, An odds comparison site that does not place bets on its own. “But in any case the bookies did not leave him. There were always more bets on the president, but the big bet came on Biden. “
Last week, an undisclosed bookie placed a bet of £ 1 million or nearly $ 1.3 million on Betfair over Betfan. If it was successful, the bet would return millions, plus £ 540,000 (about $ 700,000) and more.
But Biden’s status as a favorite was not on Tuesday night. The first blow came from Florida, a state where they expected to be more competitive. As it became clear that Trump was taking the lead there, the wagers shifted toward the president, and his chance of winning rose from 35 percent to 44 percent, at 9 a.m. Eastern Time, Odescatcher reported, Based on data from major betting sites in the United States. Place sports bets as well. Watt said that 93 percent bets on Paddy Power, a bookmaker, were on Trump at around 9:30 p.m.
Events were increasing rapidly. “Markets were constantly twitching,” Watt said. By 10 pm, Trump was the favorite, with a 56 percent chance of winning. By 11, he was up to 69 percent.
Those differences are based on the best available prices. But, of course, some bookies differ in one direction or the other, depending on the portion of bets they accept. The crowd was so large for Trump that at one point some bookies were offering odds to the Biden bookies by 6-1 or 7-1, meaning their $ 1 bet would be $ 6 or $ 7 back. Odds estimated that Trump had an 85 percent chance of winning.
After midnight, the bookies had decided that Trump was at least more likely to be re-elected.
But overnight, things shifted back to Biden. “He saw some success in the likes of Georgia, which was certainly surprising, and Arizona,” Watt said. “By 5:30 in the morning, Biden was re-established as front-runner.”
And although the election day is over, it will continue until it is clear who won, although it takes a long time. By early Wednesday, Trump had around 25 to 30 percent to win in speculative markets. 24 hours is slightly less than before, but there is still a significant chance.
While many voters have a strong obsession about their candidate, bookies who want to maximize their return will have to leave those opinions aside and bet with their heads and not their hearts. A wise bettor, who placed a bet on Trump when he was under 3–1, and placed a bet of 5–1 or more on Biden at his low point at 10 a.m. or more, some Whoever wins will be looking to make good money.