We Will Get There – The New York Times

Hello. Welcome to On politics, Your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.

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Remember when I asked you to breathe? I think it was yesterday, though time has changed in the electoral map.

Okay, are you still breathing? good.

It has been a rough day. We’ve laughed, we’ve cried, we’ve terrorized our screens and we’ve eaten a lot of gummy bugs. (Wait, is it just me?)

But, just for a minute, let’s look at the situation in a slightly different way: democracy is messed up, but so far it is working.

According to a projection, at least 159.8 million Americans cast ballots NBC News, Which would be the highest voting rate since 1900. Votes are being counted. carefully. And we can find out who our next president is, if not the first, in a few days.

Like I said, take a breath.

I doubt that tonight you just want to know what every American wants to know: Who is going to win this thing?

With Wisconsin and Michigan winding down in Joe Biden’s column this afternoon, the path to 270 electoral votes is narrowing for President Trump.

As of Eastern Time, at 8:45 a.m., Mr. Biden had 253 voters, while President Trump had 214. Seventy one remained on the map.

Three of these are in Alaska, with Mr. Trump likely to leave. For the scenarios that we are going to describe, let us assume that Alaska falls into their column.

Seizes five states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

For Mr. Trump, there is no getting around a simple mathematical fact: to win, he must nab Pennsylvania. But that state alone is not enough. To reach 270, Mr. Trump must choose Georgia and two additional states.

So Trump’s victory looks something like this: Pa + ga +. + Do Ariz., Nev. And nc

For Mr. Biden, mathematics is very easy. It needs 17 more electoral votes. Therefore, if he wins Pennsylvania, the race is over. He can also reach 270 by winning in two of the other four states.

A Biden victory looks like one of these scenarios: Just Pa. or Two Arias, Nev., NC and Ga.

Now, there is another possibility. Frankly, I hesitate to mention it as it is very unlikely, but at the same time you are likely to have access to another glass of wine.

Let’s call it the OMG scenario. If Mr. Trump wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina and Mr. Biden moves to Georgia … we have a tie.

Yes, a tie. 269 ​​to 269. Our founders, among all our eternal scholars, created a system that is equal to the total number of electoral votes. Wow!

I do not expect this to happen. Realistic takeaway from all this math? At the moment, it’s going to be a lot easier for Mr. Biden to win than Mr. Trump.

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I mean, uh, election?

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